According to foreign media reports, market research firm Analysys Mason famous prediction, based on the long term evolution (LTE) technology of 4 g networks will be used commercially in 2013, but in the beginning of its 12 months, the economic benefit is limited. That is one of the company's forecasts for the next year, and other forecasts include apple's share of the global tablet market to fall below 50 per cent.
The age of 4G
Analysys Mason predicts 4G networks will be rolled out in some European countries, in emerging markets in Latin America, and in southeast Asian countries participating in the asia-pacific region. Some developed markets, such as South Korea, will also start deploying LTE networks and take advantage of their capabilities, such as carrier aggregations, to create stronger channels for faster service delivery.
However, the direct economic impact will be limited in countries and regions where LTE services are positioned as high-fee products and the economy remains weak (Italy and Spain).
The industry will also be aware that consumers are reluctant to pay extra for LTE mobile broadband. In view of this, such services will not compete with the next generation of fixed-line products and services, which can only serve as a complementary basis. This impact will bring down the cost of 3G/HSPA mobile broadband services.
2G network will close
In 2013 is expected to have more and more operators focus on "massive closure" 2 g network, involving the mobile network operators traditional mobile infrastructure, cable network and fixed network operators public switched telephone network. The process varies greatly from region to region. South Korea, for example, already has one operator shutting down its 2G network.
The new competitive situation -- social media and mobile phone text messages to kill each other
In 2012, carriers responded to SMS by introducing rcs-e, followed by "OTT" services. In the next 12 months, market competition will heat up as social media giants such as Facebook join the fray.
AnalysysMason forecasts that revenue from European operators' information services will fall to 34 per cent in the next four years, from 28 billion euros in 2011 to 18.6 billion euros in 2017.
LTE voice service
The first LTE voice service (VoLTE) came out in 2012. Despite the wide range of commercial deployments, operators still have to make hard choices about the future of their voice services.
Cost-saving awareness is prompting an increase in investment in information management systems (IMS), but the impact of revenue is uncertain and how voice services evolve in LTE environments remains to be seen. HTML5/WebRTC will further stimulate the debate about whether voice services are just an application.
Growth in smartphone penetration has slowed
The smartphone market will continue to grow, but its growth will be significantly slower than in previous years. Global smartphone shipments will rise from 691 million in 2012 to 869 million in 2013. However, the growth rate of new smartphone connections will decline dramatically: from 39 per cent in 2011 to 29 per cent in 2012. That growth will fall further to 20% in 2013.
AnalysysMason predicts that the market share of smartphone operating systems is sustainable and gradual. Both android and iOS are expected to increase their share of global smartphone sales in the next 12 months (android: from 56.4% to 58.1%, iOS: from 21.5% to 22%). However, symbian's market share will fall from 5.9% to 2.7% and fall to zero in 2016.
Apple's tablet market share will fall below 50%
As the tablet market continues to grow, apple's dominance will continue to decline faster than many expect.
Is expected by the end of 2013, apple's tablet market share will drop to below 50%, among them iPadmini pull up effect of sales co., LTD. - the reason is that the price is too high ($329 to $329, compared with KindleFireHD level). Between 2011 and 2012, both apple and samsung had a declining market share, while other beneficiaries included HTC, MOTOROLA, RIM and SONY.
The content market for tablets will be a key differentiator and key feature in 2013 (such as quality, screen size, or processing power). Suppliers that focus on expanding their content and international business will be most likely to attract non-apple tablet users.
Multi-device service package
Sales of smartphones and tablets have been falling for the past five years: the average price of smartphones has fallen by 300 euros since 2007. This trend has contributed to the increase in data permeability and the emergence of multi-device user layers, prompting more carriers to launch multi-device service plans to generate additional revenue.
This is most evident in LTE services, where each GB charge varies widely, between $14 and $85.
Traditional TV is under more pressure
OTT/interconnect television and non-linear television will continue to force broadcasters/pay-tv and telecoms operators to rethink their strategic positioning. The number of households in the United States and Canada will more than double to 53.1 million, or 37.4 percent of the total, as far as the use of the TV paid OTT video service is available.
European households using OTT video services are expected to reach 2.3 million in 2012, accounting for only 0.7% of the total. We expect this number to increase to 32.2 million in 2017, or 10 percent of all households. Compared with the United States and Canada, the European region the growth of this field will continue to be subject to the user to charge for the use of video intend to low - because public broadcaster provides a number of high quality content for free.
Wi-fi becomes the savior
Small cellular/service provider's wi-fi solution will satisfy mobile operators to the dense city the demand of the wireless network coverage and capacity, but return ability is limited, the standard of existing mature and the cost of the solution will hinder the main deployment, until late 2013 or early 2014 situation can be improved.
Spectrum for LTE will become small cellular network and equipment support is an important choice, to meet the demand of capacity of the developed market operators, supplemented by increasing the 5 GHZ wireless network to provide better performance wi-fi.
HotSpot2.0 and device support for Passpoint2.0 service provider wi-fi solutions will enter the market by the end of 2013, helping to bridge the gap between cellular networks and new "carrier class" wi-fi services.
Operators will also begin to provide different levels of service: cellular, service providers, wireless network connection and the maximum rate of wireless network connection, intended to help distinguish between their own services and brands, and provide support to monetize its wireless experience.
Telecoms operators in emerging markets are maturing
Change the process, operating costs and the cost of network optimization will become the main problems facing emerging market operators, the operator of the increasingly mature, the reason is that these areas has been surging number of mobile phone penetration is finally starting to slow. In some African and middle eastern countries (Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Morocco and the united Arab emirates), the penetration of active SIM CARDS has exceeded 100% of the population.
